2001 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

6·28

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+7.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.101EPA / play+0.054
  • 39.1%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.149
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
  • 0.89Points / drive1.76
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:03568Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 12:27742Turnover on downs0–7
GBQ1 8:54569Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 6:0839Punt0–20
GBQ1 4:43183Touchdown0–21
DETQ1 4:29542Field goal3–21
GBQ1 2:1233Punt3–21
DETQ1 0:0000Punt3–21
DETQ2 15:00914Punt3–21
GBQ2 11:55628Punt3–21
DETQ2 8:551026Field goal6–21
GBQ2 4:06423Turnover6–21
DETQ2 2:05541Turnover6–21
GBQ2 0:131-1End of half6–21
GBQ3 15:00614Missed field goal6–21
DETQ3 11:413-3Punt6–21
GBQ3 10:411275Touchdown6–28
DETQ3 3:54744Turnover on downs6–28
GBQ3 1:39820Punt6–28
DETQ4 12:04850Turnover6–28
GBQ4 9:2931Punt6–28
DETQ4 7:52726Turnover6–28
GBQ4 5:16941Turnover on downs6–28
DETQ4 0:2112End of half6–28

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch20/3927602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart13393.00
Charlie Batch294.50
Lamont Warren581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton5121110
James Stewart56600
Herman Moore25410
David Sloan25370
Desmond Howard33220
Lamont Warren1310
Germane Crowell0200
Brock Olivo0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre22/2826020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green171579.22
Dorsey Levens7182.60
Bill Schroeder166.00
Brett Favre4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bill Schroeder441041
Bubba Franks45451
Corey Bradford22200
Ahman Green35200
Antonio Freeman24120
Dorsey Levens3370
David Martin1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.45