Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play+0.054
- 39.1%Success rate42.5%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 0.89Points / drive1.76
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 20/39 | 276 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 12 | 111 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Olivo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/28 | 260 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 17 | 157 | 9.2 | 2 |
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 4 | 104 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.45