2001 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

45·24

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJets
  • +0.005EPA / play-0.031
  • 45.6%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.011
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.079
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.9%
  • 41.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.16
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
  • +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.047

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00312Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:2334Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:26339Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 10:581058Field goal3–7
NYJQ1 6:20522Punt3–7
INDQ1 4:231075Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 14:5534Punt10–7
INDQ2 13:12940Turnover10–7
INDQ2 9:46422Touchdown17–7
NYJQ2 7:29522Punt17–13
NYJQ2 3:3716Touchdown17–14
INDQ2 3:30885Touchdown24–14
NYJQ2 1:2936Opp touchdown31–14
INDQ2 0:2000Opp touchdown31–14
NYJQ2 0:20221End of half31–14
INDQ3 15:0031Turnover31–14
NYJQ3 14:09615Field goal31–17
INDQ3 11:271175Touchdown38–17
NYJQ3 5:461064Touchdown38–24
INDQ4 14:5639Punt38–24
NYJQ4 12:371278Opp touchdown45–24
INDQ4 5:1700Opp touchdown45–24
NYJQ4 5:17625Turnover on downs45–24
INDQ4 3:1637Punt45–24
NYJQ4 1:04316End of half45–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3223122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James281354.82
Peyton Manning2199.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Pathon810931
Marvin Harrison45350
Marcus Pollard34311
Terrence Wilkins33310
Ken Dilger24280
Edgerrin James23130

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde17/2517520
Chad Pennington1/62400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin20794.01
LaMont Jordan3175.70
Laveranues Coles11616.00
Vinny Testaverde351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Becht45580
Laveranues Coles12381
Curtis Martin68300
Wayne Chrebet12200
Matt Hatchette0400
Kevin Swayne0100
LaMont Jordan0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.10