Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.005EPA / play-0.031
- 45.6%Success rate41.1%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.011
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.079
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.9%
- 41.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.62Points / drive1.16
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/32 | 231 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 28 | 135 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Pathon | 8 | 10 | 93 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 17/25 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1/6 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Becht | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 2 | 38 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 6 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10