Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
34
Model margin
+1.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.011
- 41.2%Success rate39.7%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 41.1%Third-down rate42.1%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.49
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 12/20 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 25 | 55 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
| Lamar Smith | 3 | 3 | 70 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 7/19 | 118 | 1 | 1 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 9/21 | 110 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 3 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88