2001 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

31·23

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TEN -6.5

Total

34

Model margin

+1.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapTitans
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.011
  • 41.2%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.193
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 41.1%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.49
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–TEN
MIAQ1 15:00623Field goal3–0
TENQ1 10:2333Punt3–0
TENQ1 9:0132Punt3–0
MIAQ1 7:59988Touchdown10–0
TENQ1 2:129-6Punt10–0
MIAQ2 12:5126Opp touchdown10–6
TENQ2 12:0400Opp touchdown10–7
MIAQ2 12:04665Touchdown17–7
TENQ2 9:26636Punt17–7
MIAQ2 5:5234Punt17–7
TENQ2 5:1139Punt17–7
MIAQ2 3:2934Punt17–7
TENQ2 1:45731Turnover17–7
MIAQ2 0:291-1End of half17–7
TENQ3 15:0037Punt17–7
MIAQ3 13:224-3Punt17–7
TENQ3 11:05616Punt17–7
MIAQ3 7:38373Touchdown24–7
TENQ3 5:56480Touchdown24–14
MIAQ3 3:5733Punt24–14
TENQ3 2:45527Punt24–14
MIAQ3 0:0000Punt24–14
MIAQ4 15:0039Punt24–14
TENQ4 13:213-6Turnover24–14
MIAQ4 12:06424Punt24–14
TENQ4 8:5926Opp touchdown31–14
MIAQ4 8:1500Opp touchdown31–14
TENQ4 8:15957Touchdown31–20
MIAQ4 6:093-1Punt31–20
TENQ4 4:21524Field goal31–23
MIAQ4 3:02513Punt31–23
TENQ4 0:23429End of half31–23

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler12/2022520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith25552.21
Jay Fiedler7253.60
J.J. Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden47741
Lamar Smith33701
Chris Chambers24520
James McKnight23250
J.J. Johnson1140

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair7/1911811
Neil O'Donnell9/2111012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George18492.70
Neil O'Donnell22914.50
Steve McNair5275.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason28621
Kevin Dyson410510
Chris Sanders37470
Erron Kinney37351
Eddie George24180
Frank Wycheck23150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.88