Closing spread
PK
Total
36
Model margin
+1.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.090
- 41.5%Success rate39.0%
- +0.059EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- 41.6%Third-down rate37.7%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
- 1.32Points / drive0.98
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:07 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:57 | 7 | 40 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:39 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 14:55 | 7 | 17 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 11:22 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CIN | Q2 6:04 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 2:16 | 8 | 25 | End of half | 10–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q3 13:54 | 4 | 42 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| NE | Q3 12:05 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 10:24 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| NE | Q3 6:01 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 10–16 |
| CIN | Q3 3:24 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| NE | Q3 0:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–23 |
| CIN | Q4 13:51 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 10–23 |
| NE | Q4 9:17 | 11 | 94 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| CIN | Q4 5:29 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–23 |
| NE | Q4 3:57 | 6 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 17–23 |
| CIN | Q4 2:28 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–23 |
| NE | Q4 1:54 | 4 | -7 | Turnover on downs | 17–23 |
| CIN | Q4 1:15 | 2 | -3 | End of half | 17–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 22/38 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 7 | 7 | 106 | 1 |
| David Patten | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 4 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 3 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/27 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 5 | 9 | 104 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 7 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62