Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
42
Model margin
+0.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.047
- 47.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.082
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.74CPOE+0.93
- 47.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.27Points / drive1.54
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 40/52 | 375 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 8 | 9 | 128 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 3 | 4 | 45 | 2 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 6 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 21/33 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Harris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 6 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.44