2022 · Week 16

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

22·18

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 21°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

42

Model margin

+0.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.047
  • 47.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.082
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.74CPOE+0.93
  • 47.3%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.54
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 10–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NE @ CIN26–20NE
2024 · W1NE @ CIN16–10NE
2019 · W15NE @ CIN34–13NE
2016 · W6CIN @ NE17–35NE
2014 · W5CIN @ NE17–43NE
2013 · W5NE @ CIN6–13CIN
2010 · W1CIN @ NE24–38NE
2007 · W4NE @ CIN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NE
CINQ1 15:00578Touchdown6–0
NEQ1 12:2436Punt6–0
CINQ1 10:35964Touchdown12–0
NEQ1 5:1634Punt12–0
CINQ1 3:491147Field goal15–0
NEQ2 14:51521Punt15–0
CINQ2 11:501449Turnover15–0
NEQ2 4:19429Punt15–0
CINQ2 2:161265Touchdown22–0
NEQ2 0:14111End of half22–0
NEQ3 15:0054Punt22–0
CINQ3 13:10639Punt22–0
NEQ3 9:0634Punt22–0
CINQ3 7:00623Opp touchdown22–6
CINQ3 3:5135Punt22–6
NEQ3 2:511177Touchdown22–12
CINQ4 12:58748Missed field goal22–12
NEQ4 9:06785Touchdown22–18
CINQ4 6:02518Turnover22–18
NEQ4 3:12730Turnover22–18
CINQ4 0:5937Punt22–18
NEQ4 0:41415Turnover on downs22–18
CINQ4 0:0900End of half22–18

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow40/5237532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon16654.10
Joe Burrow451.30
Samaje Perine430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins891281
Ja'Marr Chase811790
Trenton Irwin34452
Joe Mixon79430
Mitchell Wilcox66350
Tyler Boyd34210
Samaje Perine34190
Devin Asiasi2250

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones21/3324020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson13302.30
Kendrick Bourne12929.00
Kevin Harris133.00
Mac Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne691001
Jakobi Meyers67831
Jonnu Smith34210
Pierre Strong22100
Tyquan Thornton1380
Rhamondre Stevenson2530

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.44