2019 · Week 15

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

34·13

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -10.5

Total

42

Model margin

-1.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBengals
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.097
  • 42.6%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.137
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -2.06CPOE-5.27
  • 39.1%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.31
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 10–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NE @ CIN26–20NE
2024 · W1NE @ CIN16–10NE
2022 · W16CIN @ NE22–18CIN
2016 · W6CIN @ NE17–35NE
2014 · W5CIN @ NE17–43NE
2013 · W5NE @ CIN6–13CIN
2010 · W1CIN @ NE24–38NE
2007 · W4NE @ CIN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CIN
NEQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 11:44975Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 6:1332Punt7–7
CINQ1 5:16854Field goal7–10
NEQ1 0:141145Turnover on downs7–10
CINQ2 11:21830Turnover on downs7–10
NEQ2 7:09842Field goal10–10
CINQ2 3:5133Punt10–10
NEQ2 2:053-6Punt10–10
NEQ2 1:303-5Field goal13–10
CINQ2 0:0500End of half13–10
CINQ3 15:0034Turnover13–10
NEQ3 14:16743Touchdown20–10
CINQ3 11:17752Opp touchdown27–10
CINQ3 7:2138Punt27–10
NEQ3 5:5438Punt27–10
CINQ3 4:01635Turnover27–10
NEQ3 0:23520Punt27–10
CINQ4 12:111246Field goal27–13
NEQ4 6:33335Touchdown34–13
CINQ4 5:3130Punt34–13
NEQ4 5:0237Punt34–13
CINQ4 4:0639Turnover34–13
NEQ4 3:43627End of half34–13

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady15/2912820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel19894.70
Rex Burkhead6538.81
N'Keal Harry22211.00
James White3134.30
Tom Brady2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White34491
Matt LaCosse33220
N'Keal Harry24151
Sony Michel12140
Mohamed Sanu28130
Julian Edelman2590
Rex Burkhead2260

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton17/3115114

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon251365.40
Giovani Bernard5275.40
Andy Dalton210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Eifert35440
Tyler Boyd37260
John Ross23240
Joe Mixon33200
Cethan Carter22131
Giovani Bernard22100
C.J. Uzomah1280
Alex Erickson1560

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.68