Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
-1.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.097
- 42.6%Success rate40.3%
- +0.065EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.137
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- -2.06CPOE-5.27
- 39.1%Third-down rate36.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.85Points / drive1.31
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/29 | 128 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 19 | 89 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Matt LaCosse | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/31 | 151 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 136 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Cethan Carter | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.68