Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play+0.012
- 48.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.308EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.089EPA / rush+0.012
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +10.94CPOE+1.28
- 43.3%Third-down rate44.3%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 2.47Points / drive1.93
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 22/35 | 294 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/37 | 183 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Browning | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Iosivas | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 2 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.34