2025 · Week 12

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

26·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Flacco

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBengals
  • +0.154EPA / play+0.012
  • 48.2%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.308EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.089EPA / rush+0.012
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +10.94CPOE+1.28
  • 43.3%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.93
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 10–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1NE @ CIN16–10NE
2022 · W16CIN @ NE22–18CIN
2019 · W15NE @ CIN34–13NE
2016 · W6CIN @ NE17–35NE
2014 · W5CIN @ NE17–43NE
2013 · W5NE @ CIN6–13CIN
2010 · W1CIN @ NE24–38NE
2007 · W4NE @ CIN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CIN
NEQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:511046Field goal0–3
NEQ1 6:3634Punt0–3
CINQ1 5:281026Punt0–3
NEQ2 15:0026Opp touchdown0–10
NEQ2 14:19970Touchdown7–10
CINQ2 9:36416Opp touchdown14–10
CINQ2 7:42630Punt14–10
NEQ2 4:18867Field goal17–10
CINQ2 0:28237Field goal17–13
CINQ3 15:0036Punt17–13
NEQ3 13:241464Turnover on downs17–13
CINQ3 7:48535Punt17–13
NEQ3 4:58749Field goal20–13
CINQ3 1:04621Punt20–13
NEQ4 13:011389Field goal23–13
CINQ4 5:55544Touchdown23–20
NEQ4 4:40827Field goal26–20
CINQ4 1:511246Turnover on downs26–20
NEQ4 0:1800End of half26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye22/3529411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson18663.70
Drake Maye5224.40
DeMario Douglas11414.00
Rhamondre Stevenson650.80
Terrell Jennings100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry7101151
Austin Hooper34390
DeMario Douglas11370
Mack Hollins26300
Stefon Diggs23200
Kyle Williams11180
Kayshon Boutte22150
TreVeyon Henderson34150
Rhamondre Stevenson1250

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco19/3718311
Jake Browning1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown191075.60
Andrei Iosivas155.00
Tahj Brooks252.50
Joe Flacco133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrei Iosivas47610
Mike Gesicki46350
Tee Higgins56310
Mitchell Tinsley26291
Chase Brown24230
Tanner Hudson1190
Noah Fant1190
Drew Sample1100
Charlie Jones0100
Tahj Brooks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.8%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.34