2014 · Week 5

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

17·43

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.090
  • 42.0%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.020EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +0.60CPOE+1.32
  • 39.7%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.38
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 10–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NE @ CIN26–20NE
2024 · W1NE @ CIN16–10NE
2022 · W16CIN @ NE22–18CIN
2019 · W15NE @ CIN34–13NE
2016 · W6CIN @ NE17–35NE
2013 · W5NE @ CIN6–13CIN
2010 · W1CIN @ NE24–38NE
2007 · W4NE @ CIN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NE
NEQ1 15:001080Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:03941Missed field goal0–7
NEQ1 5:45658Touchdown0–14
CINQ1 3:1238Punt0–14
NEQ1 1:50816Punt0–14
CINQ2 13:53311Punt0–14
NEQ2 11:39628Punt0–14
CINQ2 8:521132Field goal3–14
NEQ2 4:331050Field goal3–17
CINQ2 1:12119Turnover3–17
NEQ2 1:00424Field goal3–20
CINQ2 0:09110End of half3–20
CINQ3 15:0035Punt3–20
NEQ3 13:56412Punt9–20
CINQ3 11:32137Touchdown10–20
NEQ3 11:271196Touchdown10–33
CINQ3 6:0600Touchdown10–34
CINQ3 6:00777Touchdown17–34
NEQ3 3:43875Field goal17–37
CINQ4 14:54618Punt17–37
NEQ4 12:14938Field goal17–40
CINQ4 7:53217Turnover17–40
NEQ4 7:06732Field goal17–43
CINQ4 2:55545Turnover on downs17–43
NEQ4 1:2400End of half17–43

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton15/2420420
Jason Campbell3/54500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard13624.80
Andy Dalton2168.00
Jeremy Hill210.50
Brandon Tate100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green57811
Mohamed Sanu59701
Jeremy Hill34680
Jermaine Gresham24150
Giovani Bernard23100
Dane Sanzenbacher1150
James Wright0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3529220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley271134.21
Shane Vereen99010.00
Tom Brady4133.30
Brandon Bolden133.00
Jimmy Garoppolo3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski6111001
Timothy Wright55851
Julian Edelman58350
Brandon LaFell14200
Shane Vereen33180
Aaron Dobson11160
Danny Amendola1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+3.11