Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.090
- 42.0%Success rate46.4%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.020EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +0.60CPOE+1.32
- 39.7%Third-down rate45.6%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.86Points / drive2.38
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/24 | 204 | 2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3/5 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 3 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 292 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 27 | 113 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 9 | 90 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 11 | 100 | 1 |
| Timothy Wright | 5 | 5 | 85 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+3.11