Closing spread
NE -2
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.031
- 46.7%Success rate43.4%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.37CPOE+1.24
- 37.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 2.05Points / drive1.76
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/38 | 197 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/27 | 212 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60