2013 · Week 5

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

6·13

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -2

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBengals
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.031
  • 46.7%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.109
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.37CPOE+1.24
  • 37.9%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.76
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 10–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NE @ CIN26–20NE
2024 · W1NE @ CIN16–10NE
2022 · W16CIN @ NE22–18CIN
2019 · W15NE @ CIN34–13NE
2016 · W6CIN @ NE17–35NE
2014 · W5CIN @ NE17–43NE
2010 · W1CIN @ NE24–38NE
2007 · W4NE @ CIN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CIN
NEQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:07422Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:3930Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:513-4Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:14625Punt0–0
CINQ1 4:24872Turnover0–0
NEQ2 15:00835Punt0–0
CINQ2 10:5735Punt0–0
NEQ2 9:03414Turnover0–0
CINQ2 7:54949Field goal0–3
NEQ2 3:12633Punt0–3
CINQ2 0:5737Punt0–3
NEQ2 0:37325Field goal3–3
CINQ2 0:0800End of half3–3
CINQ3 15:0030Punt3–3
NEQ3 14:2453Punt3–3
CINQ3 12:001259Field goal3–6
NEQ3 5:43623Punt3–6
CINQ3 2:091497Touchdown3–13
NEQ4 9:21675Field goal6–13
CINQ4 6:28626Turnover6–13
NEQ4 3:263-5Punt6–13
CINQ4 2:3238Punt6–13
NEQ4 1:48918Turnover6–13
CINQ4 0:1600End of half6–13

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/3819701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount12514.30
Brandon Bolden5244.80
Julian Edelman177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola49550
Aaron Dobson24490
Brandon Bolden68400
Julian Edelman27350
Kenbrell Thompkins34160
Michael Hoomanawanui1220

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/2721201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis19673.51
Giovani Bernard13624.80
Andy Dalton6254.20
Marvin Jones188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green58610
Tyler Eifert57530
Marvin Jones22390
Mohamed Sanu22280
Jermaine Gresham44240
Giovani Bernard2370
BenJarvus Green-Ellis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.60