Closing spread
CIN -8
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.107
- 42.5%Success rate48.0%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- +1.54CPOE+6.81
- 35.0%Third-down rate47.3%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.51Points / drive2.50
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 15/24 | 121 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 25 | 120 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 21/29 | 164 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Charlie Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.70