2024 · Week 1

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Jacoby Brissett

16·10

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -8

Total

40.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBengals
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.107
  • 42.5%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +1.54CPOE+6.81
  • 35.0%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.50
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 10–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NE @ CIN26–20NE
2022 · W16CIN @ NE22–18CIN
2019 · W15NE @ CIN34–13NE
2016 · W6CIN @ NE17–35NE
2014 · W5CIN @ NE17–43NE
2013 · W5NE @ CIN6–13CIN
2010 · W1CIN @ NE24–38NE
2007 · W4NE @ CIN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CIN
CINQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:47525Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:5249Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:181485Touchdown7–0
CINQ2 14:5832Punt7–0
NEQ2 12:4231Punt7–0
CINQ2 11:421458Turnover7–0
NEQ2 5:091163Field goal10–0
NEQ3 15:0036Punt10–0
NEQ3 13:4237Field goal13–0
CINQ3 11:34935Turnover on downs13–0
NEQ3 7:0337Punt13–0
CINQ3 5:371070Touchdown13–7
NEQ3 1:101152Field goal16–7
CINQ4 8:46537Field goal16–10
NEQ4 6:14420Punt16–10
CINQ4 3:0435Punt16–10
NEQ4 2:13426End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett15/2412100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson251204.81
Jacoby Brissett7324.60
Antonio Gibson7182.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper24310
Tyquan Thornton23270
K.J. Osborn36210
Hunter Henry23180
DeMario Douglas23120
Rhamondre Stevenson3360
Ja'Lynn Polk1160

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow21/2916400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss9444.91
Joe Burrow4153.80
Chase Brown3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase66620
Andrei Iosivas36260
Tanner Hudson23180
Mike Gesicki34180
Zack Moss24170
Chase Brown33120
Trenton Irwin1260
Charlie Jones1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.70