Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.128
- 45.3%Success rate44.3%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- +2.98CPOE+2.98
- 38.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.86Points / drive2.47
- 1.4%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/31 | 254 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/35 | 376 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 |
| James White | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 9 | 162 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| James White | 8 | 9 | 47 | 2 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.13