2016 · Week 6

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

17·35

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.052EPA / play+0.128
  • 45.3%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.077
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +2.98CPOE+2.98
  • 38.9%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.47
  • 1.4%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 10–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NE @ CIN26–20NE
2024 · W1NE @ CIN16–10NE
2022 · W16CIN @ NE22–18CIN
2019 · W15NE @ CIN34–13NE
2014 · W5CIN @ NE17–43NE
2013 · W5NE @ CIN6–13CIN
2010 · W1CIN @ NE24–38NE
2007 · W4NE @ CIN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NE
NEQ1 15:00747Field goal0–3
CINQ1 12:06734Punt0–3
NEQ1 7:341043Punt0–3
CINQ1 2:571899Turnover on downs0–3
NEQ2 9:05415Punt0–3
CINQ2 6:36760Touchdown7–3
NEQ2 3:10970Touchdown7–10
CINQ2 1:0130Punt7–10
CINQ3 15:00980Touchdown14–10
NEQ3 11:14422Punt14–10
CINQ3 8:113-8Safety14–12
NEQ3 7:05568Touchdown14–19
CINQ3 5:0030Punt14–19
NEQ3 4:33453Touchdown14–25
CINQ3 2:581168Field goal17–25
NEQ4 12:341277Field goal17–28
CINQ4 6:0458Punt17–28
NEQ4 3:32942Touchdown17–35
CINQ4 0:57216End of half17–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3125410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard15493.30
Jeremy Hill13382.90
Andy Dalton2178.51
Rex Burkhead2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green610880
Tyler Boyd45790
Giovani Bernard45450
Tyler Kroft22190
Brandon LaFell25131
C.J. Uzomah1260
Jeremy Hill1130
James Wright1110

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/3537630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount13503.81
James White7192.70
Julian Edelman188.00
Tom Brady221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski791621
Martellus Bennett55480
James White89472
Chris Hogan11390
Danny Amendola22300
Julian Edelman47300
LeGarrette Blount22200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.13