2010 · Week 1

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

24·38

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.191
  • 44.3%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.191EPA / rush+0.096
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +0.88CPOE+2.77
  • 39.8%Third-down rate48.3%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.76
  • 2.9%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 10–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NE @ CIN26–20NE
2024 · W1NE @ CIN16–10NE
2022 · W16CIN @ NE22–18CIN
2019 · W15NE @ CIN34–13NE
2016 · W6CIN @ NE17–35NE
2014 · W5CIN @ NE17–43NE
2013 · W5NE @ CIN6–13CIN
2007 · W4NE @ CIN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NE
CINQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:38572Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 9:4738Punt0–7
NEQ1 7:591056Field goal0–10
CINQ1 2:2938Turnover0–10
NEQ1 1:0534Missed field goal0–10
CINQ2 14:5135Punt0–10
NEQ2 12:591185Touchdown0–17
CINQ2 8:58732Opp touchdown0–24
CINQ2 5:381234Field goal3–24
NEQ2 1:14631Missed field goal3–24
CINQ2 0:01151End of half3–30
NEQ3 15:0000Touchdown3–31
CINQ3 14:481285Touchdown10–31
NEQ3 7:54412Punt10–31
CINQ3 5:131273Touchdown17–31
NEQ3 0:221481Touchdown17–38
CINQ4 7:411576Touchdown24–38
NEQ4 3:5700Turnover on downs24–38
NEQ4 3:57214Turnover on downs24–38
NEQ4 3:00521Turnover on downs24–38
CINQ4 1:10538End of half24–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer34/5034521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson15432.91
Bernard Scott6355.80
Carson Palmer492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson12131591
Jordan Shipley57820
Terrell Owens713530
Jermaine Gresham610251
Bernard Scott34150
Cedric Benson12110
Daniel Coats0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3525830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor14715.10
Kevin Faulk3237.70
BenJarvus Green-Ellis5224.40
Sammy Morris122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker811642
Randy Moss58590
Kevin Faulk46470
Aaron Hernandez12450
Brandon Tate45360
Fred Taylor2260
Rob Gronkowski1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.93