Closing spread
NE -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.191
- 44.3%Success rate48.7%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.191EPA / rush+0.096
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.2%
- +0.88CPOE+2.77
- 39.8%Third-down rate48.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.45Points / drive2.76
- 2.9%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 34/50 | 345 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 12 | 13 | 159 | 1 |
| Jordan Shipley | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 13 | 53 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 6 | 10 | 25 | 1 |
| Bernard Scott | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/35 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 11 | 64 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.93