Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
43
Model margin
+3.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/37 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 1 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jermaine Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.70
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.