2001 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

3·21

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.282
  • 42.5%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback-0.233
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.375
  • 11.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 45.8%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
  • 1.58Points / drive0.28
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00632Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:06516Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:48629Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:301257Field goal3–0
JAXQ2 14:20689Opp touchdown9–1
PITQ2 11:4035Punt9–1
JAXQ2 10:18850Opp touchdown15–2
PITQ2 6:33526Turnover15–2
JAXQ2 4:20223Opp touchdown21–3
PITQ2 3:26747Turnover21–3
JAXQ2 1:0536Punt21–3
PITQ2 0:28213End of half21–3
PITQ3 15:00812Punt21–3
JAXQ3 11:29615Turnover on downs21–3
PITQ3 8:1746Turnover21–3
JAXQ3 6:4139Punt21–3
PITQ3 4:3235Punt21–3
JAXQ3 2:50721Punt21–3
PITQ4 13:2238Punt21–3
JAXQ4 11:443-1Missed field goal21–3
PITQ4 10:161044Turnover on downs21–3
JAXQ4 6:0432Punt21–3
PITQ4 4:26842Turnover21–3
JAXQ4 1:47324End of half21–3

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell15/2619830
Kordell Stewart21/3718102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor24964.00
Amos Zereoue9606.70
Kordell Stewart6315.20
Jerome Bettis12282.30
Mark Brunell372.30
Hines Ward111.00
Stacey Mack1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith891262
Hines Ward711820
Kyle Brady37390
Plaxico Burress25240
Damon Jones24231
Bobby Shaw34200
Troy Edwards13170
Amos Zereoue22140
Will Blackwell1180
Keenan McCardell1280
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala1270
Mark Bruener2440
Jerome Bettis1120
Fred Taylor1220
Sean Dawkins0200
Jerame Tuman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

6.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.85