Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.282
- 42.5%Success rate40.8%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.233
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.375
- 11.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- 45.8%Third-down rate34.6%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 1.58Points / drive0.28
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 15/26 | 198 | 3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 21/37 | 181 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 96 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 9 | 126 | 2 |
| Hines Ward | 7 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.85