Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
47
Model margin
-0.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.130
- 47.5%Success rate40.4%
- +0.194EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.184
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.39CPOE-4.63
- 43.9%Third-down rate40.5%
- 73.7%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 2.23Points / drive1.26
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/47 | 314 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 13 | 117 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8 | 10 | 104 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| James Conner | 6 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| James Washington | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 10/18 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 28 | 95 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.62