2018 · Week 11

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

20·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

47

Model margin

-0.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.130
  • 47.5%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.184
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.39CPOE-4.63
  • 43.9%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 73.7%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.26
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT
2007 · playoffsJAX @ PIT31–29JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:1439Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:1439Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:48511Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:071569Field goal0–3
PITQ2 13:103-1Punt0–3
JAXQ2 12:02538Field goal0–6
PITQ2 8:3410Turnover0–6
JAXQ2 8:23837Field goal0–9
PITQ2 3:37612Punt0–9
JAXQ2 1:413-7Punt0–9
PITQ2 1:1610Turnover0–9
JAXQ2 1:0830Punt0–9
PITQ2 0:41635Turnover on downs0–9
PITQ3 15:0035Punt0–9
JAXQ3 13:214-3Punt0–9
PITQ3 10:43614Turnover0–9
JAXQ3 7:591080Touchdown0–16
PITQ3 2:09284Touchdown6–16
JAXQ3 1:1736Punt6–16
PITQ4 14:143-6Punt6–16
JAXQ4 12:433-14Punt6–16
PITQ4 10:21728Turnover on downs6–16
JAXQ4 6:473-1Punt6–16
PITQ4 5:06865Touchdown13–16
JAXQ4 2:2836Punt13–16
PITQ4 1:42867Touchdown20–16
JAXQ4 0:0510Turnover20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger27/4731423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner9252.80
Ben Roethlisberger210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown5131171
JuJu Smith-Schuster8101040
Ryan Switzer33280
Vance McDonald36271
James Conner69240
James Washington13110
Xavier Grimble1130

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles10/1810400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette28953.41
Carlos Hyde8445.50
T.J. Yeldon5234.60
Blake Bortles2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonard Fournette22460
Dede Westbrook24190
DJ Chark25150
Donte Moncrief12110
T.J. Yeldon2390
James O'Shaughnessy1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.62