2011 · Week 6

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

13·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -12.5

Total

40

Model margin

+5.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.173EPA / play+0.054
  • 36.3%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback+0.134
  • -0.127EPA / rush-0.065
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -11.15CPOE+3.03
  • 34.3%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.10Points / drive1.78
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT
2007 · playoffsJAX @ PIT31–29JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PIT
JAXQ1 15:00934Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:201087Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 4:233-2Punt0–7
PITQ1 2:55872Touchdown0–14
JAXQ2 13:4035Punt0–14
PITQ2 12:23467Field goal0–17
JAXQ2 10:58837Field goal3–17
PITQ2 8:44867Missed field goal3–17
JAXQ2 4:053-5Punt3–17
PITQ2 3:12623Punt3–17
JAXQ2 1:063-1Punt3–17
PITQ2 0:0600End of half3–17
PITQ3 15:00630Punt3–17
JAXQ3 11:211875Touchdown10–17
PITQ3 1:46515Punt10–17
JAXQ4 14:3833Punt10–17
PITQ4 13:0035Punt10–17
JAXQ4 10:4339Punt10–17
PITQ4 8:383-8Punt10–17
JAXQ4 7:13425Field goal13–17
PITQ4 4:17613Punt13–17
JAXQ4 1:01529End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert12/2610910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew22964.40
Deji Karim5214.20
Blaine Gabbert3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas46360
Marcedes Lewis28290
Jason Hill23291
Maurice Jones-Drew2380
Jarett Dillard1370
Deji Karim0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger12/2320010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall231466.31
Isaac Redman4225.50
Ben Roethlisberger393.00
Jonathan Dwyer284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace26761
Hines Ward34470
Emmanuel Sanders14320
Heath Miller46270
Antonio Brown12160
Isaac Redman1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.24