Closing spread
PIT -12.5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play+0.054
- 36.3%Success rate44.9%
- -0.210EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.065
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- -11.15CPOE+3.03
- 34.3%Third-down rate45.1%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.10Points / drive1.78
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 12/26 | 109 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 12/23 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 23 | 146 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.24