Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play+0.076
- 41.7%Success rate46.0%
- +0.095EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.97CPOE+3.69
- 36.9%Third-down rate43.8%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.81Points / drive2.22
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 14/26 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 25 | 109 | 4.4 | 3 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 37/58 | 469 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 11 | 132 | 2 |
| Vance McDonald | 10 | 16 | 112 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 9 | 13 | 88 | 1 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 4 | 78 | 1 |
| Eli Rogers | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.40