2017 · DIV

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

45·42

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 18°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.020EPA / play+0.076
  • 41.7%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.97CPOE+3.69
  • 36.9%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.22
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT
2007 · playoffsJAX @ PIT31–29JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PIT
JAXQ1 15:00866Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 10:4038Punt7–0
JAXQ1 9:00416Punt7–0
PITQ1 7:013-1Turnover13–0
JAXQ1 5:31118Touchdown14–0
PITQ1 5:26850Turnover on downs14–0
JAXQ1 1:071170Touchdown21–0
PITQ2 11:31664Touchdown21–7
JAXQ2 8:20830Punt21–7
PITQ2 4:00425Opp touchdown28–7
PITQ2 2:20751Touchdown28–14
JAXQ2 0:2500End of half28–14
PITQ3 15:001062Touchdown28–21
JAXQ3 9:09621Punt28–21
PITQ3 6:02642Punt28–21
JAXQ3 2:13613Punt28–21
PITQ4 14:4549Turnover on downs28–21
JAXQ4 12:44561Touchdown35–21
PITQ4 10:34575Touchdown35–28
JAXQ4 9:05875Touchdown42–28
PITQ4 4:191275Touchdown42–35
JAXQ4 2:1839Field goal45–35
PITQ4 1:451085Touchdown45–42
JAXQ4 0:0100End of half45–42

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles14/2621410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette251094.43
Blake Bortles5357.00
T.J. Yeldon5204.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Yeldon33570
Keelan Cole12450
Marqise Lee36280
Ben Koyack11210
James O'Shaughnessy12190
Allen Hurns12120
Leonard Fournette24100
Dede Westbrook1380
Marcedes Lewis0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger37/5846951

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell16674.21
Ben Roethlisberger2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown7111322
Vance McDonald10161120
Le'Veon Bell913881
Martavis Bryant24781
Eli Rogers55420
Jesse James11120
JuJu Smith-Schuster3551
Darrius Heyward-Bey0100
Xavier Grimble0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.40