Closing spread
PIT -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play+0.076
- 41.7%Success rate46.0%
- +0.095EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.97CPOE+3.69
- 36.9%Third-down rate43.8%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.81Points / drive2.22
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 8/14 | 95 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 28 | 181 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Max McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 33/55 | 312 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 19 | 157 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 5 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.84