2017 · Week 5

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

30·9

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -7.5

Total

41

Model margin

+0.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.020EPA / play+0.076
  • 41.7%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.97CPOE+3.69
  • 36.9%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.22
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT
2007 · playoffsJAX @ PIT31–29JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PIT
JAXQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:23661Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 10:17636Punt0–3
PITQ1 7:211154Turnover0–3
JAXQ1 1:24847Touchdown7–3
PITQ2 12:19420Punt7–3
JAXQ2 9:271353Punt7–3
PITQ2 1:51614Punt7–3
JAXQ2 1:0623Turnover7–3
PITQ2 0:41445Field goal7–6
JAXQ2 0:0300End of half7–6
PITQ3 15:001563Field goal7–9
JAXQ3 8:5430Punt7–9
PITQ3 7:222-1Opp touchdown13–9
PITQ3 6:3869Opp touchdown20–9
PITQ3 3:59920Punt20–9
JAXQ4 14:501267Field goal23–9
PITQ4 6:43513Turnover23–9
JAXQ4 5:3039Punt23–9
PITQ4 4:28864Turnover23–9
JAXQ4 3:16493Touchdown30–9
PITQ4 1:4739End of half30–9

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles8/149501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette281816.52
Chris Ivory8415.10
Blake Bortles199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee24490
Allen Hurns23210
Marcedes Lewis12140
Max McCaffrey1140
Keelan Cole1140
Leonard Fournette1130
Corey Grant0100
James O'Shaughnessy0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger33/5531205

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell15473.10
Martavis Bryant11313.00
James Conner393.00
Ben Roethlisberger111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown10191570
JuJu Smith-Schuster46580
Le'Veon Bell1010460
Jesse James35240
Martavis Bryant58210
Justin Hunter1360
Vance McDonald0200
James Conner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.84