2023 · Week 8

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

20·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.064
  • 43.1%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.069
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.62CPOE-0.21
  • 38.5%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.54
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT
2007 · playoffsJAX @ PIT31–29JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:03719Field goal3–0
PITQ1 10:4734Punt3–0
JAXQ1 9:23636Field goal6–0
PITQ1 5:5438Punt6–0
JAXQ1 4:27838Turnover6–0
PITQ1 0:2332Punt6–0
JAXQ2 13:35657Turnover6–0
PITQ2 10:151261Field goal6–3
JAXQ2 3:59938Field goal9–3
PITQ2 1:04530Missed field goal9–3
JAXQ3 15:00939Turnover9–3
PITQ3 10:223-9Punt9–3
JAXQ3 8:5735Punt9–3
PITQ3 7:33516Punt9–3
JAXQ3 5:18256Touchdown17–3
PITQ3 5:05875Touchdown17–10
JAXQ3 0:531038Punt17–10
PITQ4 10:1432Turnover17–10
JAXQ4 9:20755Field goal20–10
PITQ4 4:35915Turnover on downs20–10
JAXQ4 2:253-4Punt20–10
PITQ4 1:52962Turnover20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/3229211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne24793.30
Trevor Lawrence11010.00
Tank Bigsby393.00
D'Ernest Johnson284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram1010880
Calvin Ridley610830
Travis Etienne36701
Christian Kirk45460
Luke Farrell1150

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky15/2713812
Kenny Pickett10/167300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren5193.80
Mitchell Trubisky3186.00
Najee Harris7131.90
Calvin Austin III2105.00
Kenny Pickett11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson814850
Najee Harris55420
George Pickens15221
Jaylen Warren45190
Calvin Austin III22190
Allen Robinson0100
Rod Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.04