Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.064
- 43.1%Success rate42.3%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.62CPOE-0.21
- 38.5%Third-down rate37.3%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.84Points / drive1.54
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/32 | 292 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 24 | 79 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 10 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 6 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 15/27 | 138 | 1 | 2 |
| Kenny Pickett | 10/16 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 14 | 85 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.04