Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
47
Model margin
-1.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.161
- 48.4%Success rate37.6%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.184
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.114
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +5.59CPOE-7.00
- 45.6%Third-down rate32.0%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.26Points / drive0.97
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/36 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Justin Brown | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 22/36 | 191 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storm Johnson | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 11 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.14