2014 · Week 5

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

17·9

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

47

Model margin

-1.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.161
  • 48.4%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.184
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.114
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +5.59CPOE-7.00
  • 45.6%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.26Points / drive0.97
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT
2007 · playoffsJAX @ PIT31–29JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–JAX
PITQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:251553Field goal0–3
PITQ1 5:17517Punt0–3
JAXQ1 2:1439Punt0–3
PITQ1 1:10865Field goal3–3
JAXQ2 12:3541Turnover3–3
PITQ2 10:3559Punt3–3
JAXQ2 7:5539Punt3–3
PITQ2 6:461075Touchdown10–3
JAXQ2 1:53958Field goal10–6
PITQ2 0:0913End of half10–6
JAXQ3 15:00521Punt10–6
PITQ3 11:581160Punt10–6
JAXQ3 6:33768Field goal10–9
PITQ3 3:161071Turnover10–9
JAXQ4 12:242-2Opp touchdown17–9
JAXQ4 11:32421Punt17–9
PITQ4 9:28622Punt17–9
JAXQ4 5:2835Punt17–9
PITQ4 4:05747End of half17–9

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger26/3627310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell15825.50
LeGarrette Blount8293.60
Dri Archer122.00
Will Johnson100.00
Ben Roethlisberger3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown512840
Heath Miller34460
Le'Veon Bell56360
Lance Moore11260
Justin Brown33260
LeGarrette Blount33170
Markus Wheaton12170
Will Johnson11120
Dri Archer2280
Michael Palmer1111
Darrius Heyward-Bey1100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles22/3619102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Storm Johnson4276.80
Blake Bortles4143.50
Toby Gerhart492.30
Denard Robinson362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson511510
Mike Brown22260
Allen Hurns411260
Jordan Todman22230
Clay Harbor34220
Toby Gerhart11200
Ace Sanders22120
Denard Robinson22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.14