2020 · Week 11

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

27·3

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Jake Luton

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PIT -11

Total

47

Model margin

-6.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.050
  • 44.0%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.90CPOE-0.40
  • 42.1%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 70.3%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.74
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT
2007 · playoffsJAX @ PIT31–29JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00852Field goal0–3
PITQ1 10:57519Missed field goal0–3
JAXQ1 8:47611Punt0–3
PITQ1 6:24953Punt0–3
JAXQ1 1:0235Punt0–3
PITQ2 15:00850Field goal3–3
JAXQ2 10:4531Punt3–3
PITQ2 9:49656Touchdown10–3
JAXQ2 7:00749Turnover10–3
PITQ2 2:57761Touchdown17–3
JAXQ2 0:44219Turnover17–3
PITQ2 0:29518Turnover17–3
PITQ3 15:003-1Punt17–3
JAXQ3 13:21719Punt17–3
PITQ3 9:31620Punt17–3
JAXQ3 6:3039Punt17–3
PITQ3 4:59728Punt17–3
JAXQ3 0:375-1Punt17–3
PITQ4 14:11929Field goal20–3
JAXQ4 10:21624Turnover20–3
PITQ4 8:32435Touchdown27–3
JAXQ4 6:40410Turnover27–3
PITQ4 5:5739Punt27–3
JAXQ4 3:3048Turnover on downs27–3
PITQ4 2:0000End of half27–3

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger32/4626721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner13896.80
Benny Snell7152.11
Ray-Ray McCloud133.00
Anthony McFarland331.00
Mason Rudolph3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson12161110
Chase Claypool48591
Eric Ebron47361
Ray-Ray McCloud44200
JuJu Smith-Schuster45190
James Washington13120
James Conner33100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Luton16/3715104

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson17734.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark48410
Tyler Eifert25320
Keelan Cole25260
James Robinson22210
Chris Conley14130
Ben Ellefson13100
Devine Ozigbo3350
Eric Saubert1130
Dare Ogunbowale0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -113.2%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-6.15