Closing spread
PIT -11
Total
47
Model margin
-6.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.050
- 44.0%Success rate42.0%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.90CPOE-0.40
- 42.1%Third-down rate40.6%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 2.12Points / drive1.74
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 32/46 | 267 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 13 | 89 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 12 | 16 | 111 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| James Washington | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Luton | 16/37 | 151 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Ben Ellefson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.15