2008 · Week 5

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

26·21

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -5.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.031EPA / play-0.004
  • 42.9%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.032
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.13CPOE+3.08
  • 41.3%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.65
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2007 · playoffsJAX @ PIT31–29JAX

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger26/4130931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mewelde Moore17995.80
Gary Russell6254.20
Najeh Davenport133.00
Ben Roethlisberger221.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard18/3220010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor10191.90
David Garrard4123.00
Maurice Jones-Drew571.41

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.68