Closing spread
JAX -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.004
- 42.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.032
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.13CPOE+3.08
- 41.3%Third-down rate41.7%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.61Points / drive1.65
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 12:49 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q1 5:18 | 8 | 35 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| PIT | Q1 2:27 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q2 12:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q2 11:17 | 4 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q2 9:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q2 7:31 | 7 | 3 | Punt | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q2 4:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q2 2:52 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:45 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 20–14 |
| PIT | Q3 10:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q3 9:25 | 9 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 20–14 |
| PIT | Q3 4:21 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q3 2:18 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| PIT | Q4 14:05 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 20–21 |
| JAX | Q4 10:30 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 20–21 |
| PIT | Q4 6:33 | 11 | 95 | Touchdown | 26–21 |
| JAX | Q4 1:53 | 8 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 26–21 |
| PIT | Q4 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/41 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 17 | 99 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 18/32 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.68