Closing spread
STL -3
Total
46
Model margin
+3.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 12-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 32/48 | 312 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 7 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 11 | 15 | 81 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 6 | 7 | 40 | 2 |
| Na Brown | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.