2024 · DIV

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

22·28

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapEagles
  • +0.038EPA / play+0.111
  • 47.5%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.069EPA / rush+0.056
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -0.97CPOE+6.20
  • 37.0%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 49.9%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.09Points / drive2.46
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.8 points. PHI are 12-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LA @ PHI24–20RAMS
2025 · W3LA @ PHI26–33PHI
2024 · W12PHI @ LA37–20PHI
2023 · W5PHI @ LA23–14PHI
2020 · W2LA @ PHI37–19RAMS
2018 · W15PHI @ LA30–23PHI
2017 · W14PHI @ LA43–35PHI
2014 · W5STL @ PHI28–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00674Touchdown0–6
LAQ1 11:551367Touchdown7–6
PHIQ1 6:323-5Punt7–6
LAQ1 4:5130Punt7–6
PHIQ1 2:41468Touchdown7–13
LAQ1 1:07668Field goal10–13
PHIQ2 12:47818Punt10–13
LAQ2 8:14535Punt10–13
PHIQ2 5:181341End of half10–13
LAQ3 15:0037Punt10–13
PHIQ3 13:2037Punt10–13
LAQ3 11:59765Field goal13–13
PHIQ3 7:37949Field goal13–16
LAQ3 2:1938Punt13–16
PHIQ3 1:162-4Safety15–16
LAQ3 0:2628Turnover15–16
PHIQ4 14:4939Field goal15–19
LAQ4 13:2369Turnover15–19
PHIQ4 11:04719Field goal15–22
LAQ4 6:1830Punt15–28
PHIQ4 4:47178Touchdown15–28
LAQ4 4:361070Touchdown22–28
PHIQ4 2:483-3Punt22–28
LAQ4 2:231065Turnover on downs22–28
PHIQ4 0:2600End of half22–28

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/4432420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams191065.60
Matthew Stafford252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua614970
Demarcus Robinson37740
Cooper Kupp57610
Tyler Higbee710541
Tutu Atwell11180
Jordan Whittington11120
Colby Parkinson2291
Kyren Williams12-10

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts15/2012800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley262057.92
Jalen Hurts77010.01
Kenny Gainwell11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert44560
Saquon Barkley44270
DeVonta Smith44210
A.J. Brown27140
Kenny Gainwell11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.95