Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.111
- 47.5%Success rate45.2%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.056
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.97CPOE+6.20
- 37.0%Third-down rate42.4%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.09Points / drive2.46
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 12-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/44 | 324 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 19 | 106 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 6 | 14 | 97 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 7 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/20 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 26 | 205 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 70 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.95