2017 · Week 14

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

43·35

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapRams
  • +0.051EPA / play+0.054
  • 43.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.131
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.050
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +0.38CPOE-1.32
  • 42.0%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.27
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.8 points. LA are 4-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LA @ PHI24–20RAMS
2025 · W3LA @ PHI26–33PHI
2024 · playoffsLA @ PHI22–28PHI
2024 · W12PHI @ LA37–20PHI
2023 · W5PHI @ LA23–14PHI
2020 · W2LA @ PHI37–19RAMS
2018 · W15PHI @ LA30–23PHI
2014 · W5STL @ PHI28–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–LA
PHIQ1 15:0035Turnover0–0
LAQ1 13:56337Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 13:001066Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 8:44416Punt7–7
PHIQ1 6:37852Touchdown14–7
LAQ1 2:54524Punt14–7
PHIQ1 0:421180Touchdown21–7
LAQ2 11:10670Touchdown21–14
PHIQ2 9:2448Punt21–14
LAQ2 7:03512Punt21–14
PHIQ2 4:38413Punt21–14
LAQ2 2:5639Punt21–14
PHIQ2 1:49980Field goal24–14
LAQ2 0:0900End of half24–14
LAQ3 15:00671Touchdown24–21
PHIQ3 11:4135Opp touchdown24–28
PHIQ3 10:071777Touchdown31–28
LAQ3 2:20770Touchdown31–35
PHIQ4 13:58947Field goal34–35
LAQ4 9:5447Turnover34–35
PHIQ4 8:1375Field goal37–35
LAQ4 3:4530Punt37–35
PHIQ4 2:02617Punt43–35
LAQ4 0:011-8Opp touchdown43–35

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz23/4129141
Nick Foles6/104200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi15785.20
Corey Clement6244.00
Carson Wentz3165.30
LeGarrette Blount7121.70
Nick Foles199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith6111000
Trey Burton56712
Nelson Agholor811640
Alshon Jeffery511521
Corey Clement13280
LeGarrette Blount22110
Brent Celek1351
Jay Ajayi1220
Mack Hollins0200

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff16/2619920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley13967.42
Tavon Austin166.00
Malcolm Brown155.00
Jared Goff221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp571181
Todd Gurley35390
Sammy Watkins37211
Josh Reynolds22170
Mike Thomas1160
Gerald Everett1160
Pharoh Cooper1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.34