Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.054
- 43.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.4%
- +0.38CPOE-1.32
- 42.0%Third-down rate41.3%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 2.12Points / drive2.27
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. LA are 3-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 23/41 | 291 | 4 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 6/10 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 6 | 11 | 100 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 5 | 6 | 71 | 2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 8 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 11 | 52 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 16/26 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 13 | 96 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 7 | 118 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 7 | 21 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34