Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.034
- 52.2%Success rate43.3%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.092
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.047
- 11.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.65CPOE+3.26
- 40.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.67Points / drive2.11
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 12-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/33 | 196 | 2 | 1 |
| Joshua Karty | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 11 | 15 | 112 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 21/32 | 226 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 10 | 109 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.04