2025 · Week 3

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

26·33

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapEagles
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.034
  • 52.2%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.092
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.047
  • 11.3%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.65CPOE+3.26
  • 40.0%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.11
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.8 points. PHI are 12-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LA @ PHI24–20RAMS
2024 · playoffsLA @ PHI22–28PHI
2024 · W12PHI @ LA37–20PHI
2023 · W5PHI @ LA23–14PHI
2020 · W2LA @ PHI37–19RAMS
2018 · W15PHI @ LA30–23PHI
2017 · W14PHI @ LA43–35PHI
2014 · W5STL @ PHI28–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–PHI
LAQ1 15:00413Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 13:281037Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 8:07837Field goal3–7
PHIQ1 4:003-5Punt3–7
LAQ1 2:15354Touchdown10–7
PHIQ1 1:203-8Punt10–7
LAQ2 14:491249Field goal13–7
PHIQ2 9:1533Punt13–7
LAQ2 7:44739Field goal16–7
PHIQ2 3:4337Punt16–7
LAQ2 1:52420Field goal19–7
PHIQ2 0:1000End of half19–7
PHIQ3 15:0020Turnover25–7
LAQ3 14:12110Touchdown26–7
PHIQ3 14:06689Touchdown26–14
LAQ3 11:38420Punt26–14
PHIQ3 8:431472Touchdown26–21
LAQ3 2:16838Turnover on downs26–21
PHIQ4 14:0743Turnover on downs26–21
LAQ4 12:18632Missed field goal26–21
PHIQ4 8:421791Touchdown26–27
LAQ4 1:48944Opp touchdown26–33

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/3319621
Joshua Karty0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams20944.70
Blake Corum8536.60
Jordan Whittington273.50
Puka Nacua166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua11151120
Davante Adams38561
Kyren Williams23181
Jordan Whittington2370
Davis Allen1130
Tyler Higbee0200
Tutu Atwell0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts21/3222630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley18462.60
Jalen Hurts9404.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown6101091
DeVonta Smith89601
Dallas Goedert12331
Saquon Barkley4590
John Metchie III1180
Jahan Dotson1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.04