2018 · Week 15

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

30·23

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

LA -13.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Rams

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapRams
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.149
  • 46.2%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.097EPA / rush+0.065
  • 8.9%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +5.11CPOE+1.24
  • 40.4%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.63
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.8 points. LA are 4-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LA @ PHI24–20RAMS
2025 · W3LA @ PHI26–33PHI
2024 · playoffsLA @ PHI22–28PHI
2024 · W12PHI @ LA37–20PHI
2023 · W5PHI @ LA23–14PHI
2020 · W2LA @ PHI37–19RAMS
2017 · W14PHI @ LA43–35PHI
2014 · W5STL @ PHI28–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–LA
LAQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:24843Field goal3–0
LAQ1 8:351490Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 1:16948Field goal6–7
LAQ2 12:00219Turnover6–7
PHIQ2 11:1149Turnover on downs6–7
LAQ2 9:29838Field goal6–10
PHIQ2 4:38975Touchdown13–10
LAQ2 1:07957Field goal13–13
PHIQ3 15:00419Punt13–13
LAQ3 12:3634Punt13–13
PHIQ3 11:14259Touchdown20–13
LAQ3 10:2838Punt20–13
PHIQ3 9:071062Field goal23–13
LAQ3 3:1133Turnover23–13
PHIQ3 2:12212Touchdown30–13
LAQ3 1:3445Turnover on downs30–13
PHIQ3 0:39312Turnover30–13
LAQ4 14:091061Field goal30–16
PHIQ4 9:24628Punt30–16
LAQ4 6:181184Touchdown30–23
PHIQ4 4:06413Punt30–23
PHIQ4 2:5131Missed field goal30–23
LAQ4 1:08639End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles24/3127001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood10484.82
Darren Sproles33010.00
Josh Adams15281.91
Nick Foles252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery881600
Golden Tate55430
Zach Ertz37220
Darren Sproles34160
Dallas Goedert22120
Wendell Smallwood2290
Nelson Agholor1280
Josh Adams0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff35/5333901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley12484.02
Robert Woods11919.00
Jared Goff2115.50
John Kelly242.00
Justin Davis100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Gurley1013760
Robert Woods79740
Josh Reynolds512700
Brandin Cooks67590
Gerald Everett57460
Tyler Higbee22140
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.17