Closing spread
LA -13.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.149
- 46.2%Success rate50.8%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.097EPA / rush+0.065
- 8.9%Explosive rate12.1%
- +5.11CPOE+1.24
- 40.4%Third-down rate45.0%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.01Points / drive2.63
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. LA are 3-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 24/31 | 270 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 8 | 8 | 160 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 35/53 | 339 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| John Kelly | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 10 | 13 | 76 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 7 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17