Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
46
Model margin
-1.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.055
- 44.6%Success rate41.8%
- +0.032EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.37CPOE-4.93
- 44.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.76Points / drive1.61
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 12-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/27 | 267 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 12 | 81 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 5 | 54 | 3 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 26/43 | 242 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
38.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.15