Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+10.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge mapEagles
- -0.226EPA / play+0.027
- 43.3%Success rate34.0%
- -0.270EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.167
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- -4.74CPOE+0.87
- 22.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 0.69Points / drive1.99
- 3.3%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 12-3-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.46
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+10.59