2026 · Week 4

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

24·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapEagles
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.096
  • 48.7%Success rate37.7%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.145
  • 7.9%Explosive rate4.6%
  • +0.50CPOE-2.40
  • 44.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 66.5%Red-zone TD rate73.9%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.70
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.8 points. PHI are 12-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3LA @ PHI26–33PHI
2024 · playoffsLA @ PHI22–28PHI
2024 · W12PHI @ LA37–20PHI
2023 · W5PHI @ LA23–14PHI
2020 · W2LA @ PHI37–19RAMS
2018 · W15PHI @ LA30–23PHI
2017 · W14PHI @ LA43–35PHI
2014 · W5STL @ PHI28–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:17410Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 11:48517Field goal0–3
LAQ1 8:381368Field goal3–3
PHIQ1 2:081239Field goal3–6
LAQ2 10:5638Punt3–6
PHIQ2 8:3648Punt3–6
LAQ2 6:5730Punt3–6
PHIQ2 6:26217Touchdown3–13
LAQ2 5:44967Touchdown10–13
PHIQ2 1:5545Punt10–13
LAQ2 1:0032Turnover10–13
PHIQ2 0:18310Touchdown10–20
LAQ2 0:0300End of half10–20
LAQ3 15:00519Punt10–20
PHIQ3 13:1335Punt10–20
LAQ3 11:48931Missed field goal10–20
PHIQ3 7:1535Punt10–20
LAQ3 6:19734Punt10–20
PHIQ3 3:0749Turnover on downs10–20
LAQ3 0:59517Turnover on downs10–20
PHIQ4 14:111162Turnover on downs10–20
LAQ4 7:261185Touchdown17–20
PHIQ4 3:5936Punt17–20
LAQ4 2:551175Touchdown24–20
PHIQ4 1:104-15Turnover on downs24–20
LAQ4 0:0400End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford32/5131702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams16805.02
Blake Corum5142.80
Matthew Stafford3103.30
Puka Nacua122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua9121250
Tyler Higbee56670
Kyren Williams1013670
Davante Adams49320
Tutu Atwell1180
Blake Corum1270
Konata Mumpfield1370
Jordan Whittington1240
Davis Allen0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts12/279320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby14553.90
Will Shipley6233.80
Jalen Hurts5183.60
Saquon Barkley284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Cooper37332
Makai Lemon36270
Dontayvion Wicks35180
Zach Ertz24130
Saquon Barkley1120
Tank Bigsby0100
Will Shipley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.58