Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play+0.042
- 46.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- +3.86CPOE-3.54
- 47.5%Third-down rate41.4%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 2.30Points / drive2.13
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. LA are 3-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 25/38 | 303 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 8 | 127 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 8 | 9 | 117 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/37 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 12 | 118 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 11 | 71 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73