2023 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

23·14

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapRams
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.042
  • 46.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.085
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +3.86CPOE-3.54
  • 47.5%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.13
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.8 points. LA are 4-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LA @ PHI24–20RAMS
2025 · W3LA @ PHI26–33PHI
2024 · playoffsLA @ PHI22–28PHI
2024 · W12PHI @ LA37–20PHI
2020 · W2LA @ PHI37–19RAMS
2018 · W15PHI @ LA30–23PHI
2017 · W14PHI @ LA43–35PHI
2014 · W5STL @ PHI28–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–LA
PHIQ1 15:001275Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 8:371475Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 2:01925Punt7–7
LAQ2 13:41618Punt7–7
PHIQ2 10:391456Field goal10–7
LAQ2 2:15675Touchdown10–14
PHIQ2 0:32548Touchdown17–14
LAQ3 15:00817Punt17–14
PHIQ3 11:09775Turnover17–14
LAQ3 7:36513Punt17–14
PHIQ3 5:381683Field goal20–14
LAQ4 12:29617Punt20–14
PHIQ4 9:55972Field goal23–14
LAQ4 4:0663Turnover on downs23–14
PHIQ4 2:46720Turnover on downs23–14
LAQ4 1:01531End of half23–14

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts25/3830311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts15724.81
D'Andre Swift17704.10
Kenny Gainwell7172.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown681270
Dallas Goedert891171
D'Andre Swift66380
Kenny Gainwell1270
DeVonta Smith1560
Quez Watkins2340
Jack Stoll1140

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3722220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams13534.10
Ronnie Rivers111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp8121180
Puka Nacua711711
Tyler Higbee23200
Tutu Atwell2591
Kyren Williams2240
Ben Skowronek0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.73