Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
49
Model margin
-1.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.038
- 45.2%Success rate47.5%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.112
- +0.056EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +6.20CPOE-0.97
- 42.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 2.46Points / drive2.09
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. LA are 3-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/22 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 26 | 255 | 9.8 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 7 | 109 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/36 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 13 | 117 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 11 | 60 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.70