2024 · Week 12

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

37·20

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

49

Model margin

-1.7est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapRams
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.038
  • 45.2%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.112
  • +0.056EPA / rush-0.069
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +6.20CPOE-0.97
  • 42.4%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 2.46Points / drive2.09
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.8 points. LA are 4-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LA @ PHI24–20RAMS
2025 · W3LA @ PHI26–33PHI
2024 · playoffsLA @ PHI22–28PHI
2023 · W5PHI @ LA23–14PHI
2020 · W2LA @ PHI37–19RAMS
2018 · W15PHI @ LA30–23PHI
2017 · W14PHI @ LA43–35PHI
2014 · W5STL @ PHI28–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–LA
LAQ1 15:00553Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 12:321180Field goal3–0
LAQ1 5:131064Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 1:0266Punt3–7
LAQ2 12:3636Punt3–7
PHIQ2 11:401056Field goal6–7
LAQ2 6:173-8Punt6–7
PHIQ2 4:131062Touchdown13–7
LAQ2 1:2735Punt13–7
PHIQ2 0:265-1Turnover on downs13–7
LAQ2 0:021-9End of half13–7
PHIQ3 15:00170Touchdown20–7
LAQ3 14:49937Touchdown20–14
PHIQ3 10:51970Touchdown27–14
LAQ3 6:171051Missed field goal27–14
PHIQ3 1:321255Field goal30–14
LAQ4 10:301123Punt30–14
PHIQ4 5:13685Touchdown37–14
LAQ4 2:44868Touchdown37–20
PHIQ4 1:0700End of half37–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts15/2217910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley262559.82
Jalen Hurts12393.30
Kenny Gainwell5224.41
Kenny Pickett2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown671091
Saquon Barkley44470
Dallas Goedert45190
Jahan Dotson1140
Grant Calcaterra0100
Johnny Wilson0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3624320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams16724.51
Matthew Stafford11515.00
Blake Corum155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua9131170
Cooper Kupp811601
Tutu Atwell33300
Demarcus Robinson23151
Tyler Johnson11110
Colby Parkinson12100
Davis Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.70