2001 · Week 1
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 69°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -9
Total
34
Model margin
+0.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.125
- 39.6%Success rate36.1%
- +0.010EPA / dropback-0.132
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.117
- 6.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- 35.3%Third-down rate32.7%
- 42.8%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
- 1.43Points / drive0.93
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 25/34 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 22 | 56 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 8 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 7 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 9/19 | 34 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 6 | 10 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88