2021 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -10
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.143
- 46.8%Success rate49.9%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.062EPA / rush+0.024
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.99CPOE+1.50
- 43.7%Third-down rate48.0%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.44Points / drive2.51
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. TB are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 42/58 | 403 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 13 | 17 | 139 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 15 | 104 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/50 | 379 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 7 | 121 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 9 | 13 | 105 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 8 | 90 | 2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14