2021 · Week 1

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

29·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -10

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Nothing filed.

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.143
  • 46.8%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.062EPA / rush+0.024
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.99CPOE+1.50
  • 43.7%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.44Points / drive2.51
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. TB are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–TB
TBQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:18959Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:32994Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 5:23775Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 1:35535Punt7–7
DALQ2 14:4237Punt7–7
TBQ2 12:41650Touchdown7–14
DALQ2 9:48843Missed field goal7–14
TBQ2 6:3611Turnover7–14
DALQ2 6:28527Touchdown13–14
TBQ2 4:2010Turnover13–14
DALQ2 4:0834Field goal16–14
TBQ2 3:16257Touchdown16–21
DALQ2 2:38917Missed field goal16–21
TBQ2 0:1530Turnover16–21
DALQ3 15:001356Field goal19–21
TBQ3 9:1530Punt19–21
DALQ3 8:4410Turnover19–21
TBQ3 8:31435Touchdown19–28
DALQ3 6:231075Touchdown26–28
TBQ3 0:33823Punt26–28
DALQ4 11:5332Punt26–28
TBQ4 10:541066Turnover26–28
DALQ4 4:521275Field goal29–28
TBQ4 1:241062Field goal29–31
DALQ4 0:02111End of half29–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott42/5840331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott11333.00
Tony Pollard3144.70
Dak Prescott4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper13171392
CeeDee Lamb7151041
Dalton Schultz66450
Michael Gallup47360
Tony Pollard44290
Cedrick Wilson Jr.33240
Blake Jarwin33200
Ezekiel Elliott2260

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady32/5037942

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette9323.60
Ronald Jones4143.50
Antonio Brown166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown571211
Chris Godwin Jr.9131051
Rob Gronkowski88902
Leonard Fournette57270
Mike Evans36240
Giovani Bernard23120
Tyler Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14