2022 · WC
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.030
- 45.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.208
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.5%
- -1.95CPOE+0.30
- 46.2%Third-down rate38.1%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.26Points / drive1.63
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. TB are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/33 | 305 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 8 | 95 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 35/66 | 351 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 10 | 13 | 85 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 7 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.09