2022 · WC

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

31·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.030
  • 45.2%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.208
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -1.95CPOE+0.30
  • 46.2%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.63
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. TB are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–TB
DALQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TBQ1 14:353-2Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:353-5Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:2035Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:00765Touchdown6–0
TBQ1 6:281470Turnover6–0
DALQ2 14:511590Touchdown12–0
TBQ2 6:13522Punt12–0
DALQ2 3:321196Touchdown18–0
TBQ2 0:27525End of half18–0
TBQ3 15:0036Punt18–0
DALQ3 14:11881Touchdown24–0
TBQ3 10:04824Punt24–0
DALQ3 8:09831Punt24–0
TBQ3 3:091095Touchdown24–6
DALQ4 15:00966Touchdown31–6
TBQ4 10:131273Turnover on downs31–6
DALQ4 6:2032Punt31–6
TBQ4 4:431152Touchdown31–14
DALQ4 2:0400Turnover on downs31–14
TBQ4 2:00616Turnover on downs31–14
DALQ4 1:0800End of half31–14

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3330540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard15775.10
Ezekiel Elliott13272.10
Dak Prescott7243.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz78952
CeeDee Lamb46681
Michael Gallup56461
Jake Ferguson11340
T.Y. Hilton24230
Noah Brown22180
Tony Pollard33120
Ezekiel Elliott1290

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady35/6635121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White7415.90
Leonard Fournette5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.1013850
Julio Jones711741
Mike Evans611740
Cade Otton47580
Rachaad White46360
Russell Gage28100
Cameron Brate1381
Leonard Fournette1160
Ko Kieft0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.09