2016 · Week 15
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.126
- 43.9%Success rate48.6%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.208EPA / rush+0.006
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.81CPOE+4.07
- 44.2%Third-down rate43.8%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.74Points / drive2.52
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 17/35 | 247 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Freddie Martino | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 32/36 | 279 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 23 | 159 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Darren McFadden | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 8 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 10 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36