2016 · Week 15

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

20·26

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.126
  • 43.9%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.208EPA / rush+0.006
  • 6.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.81CPOE+4.07
  • 44.2%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.52
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. DAL are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DAL
DALQ1 15:00948Missed field goal0–0
TBQ1 9:46926Field goal3–0
DALQ1 5:541180Field goal3–3
TBQ2 14:561-7Turnover3–3
DALQ2 14:45514Touchdown3–10
TBQ2 12:3434Punt3–10
DALQ2 11:371064Touchdown3–17
TBQ2 6:241069Field goal6–17
DALQ2 1:52951Missed field goal6–17
TBQ2 0:08213Turnover6–17
TBQ3 15:00875Touchdown13–17
DALQ3 11:44421Punt13–17
TBQ3 9:011191Touchdown20–17
DALQ3 4:12958Field goal20–20
TBQ4 13:313-4Turnover20–20
DALQ4 11:49412Field goal20–23
TBQ4 9:3533Punt20–23
DALQ4 8:4513Turnover20–23
TBQ4 8:3235Punt20–23
DALQ4 6:55781Field goal20–26
TBQ4 2:583-8Punt20–26
DALQ4 2:08419Punt20–26
TBQ4 1:3659Turnover20–26
DALQ4 0:2400End of half20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston17/3524723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin16422.60
Jameis Winston166.00
Charles Sims341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Brate58731
Mike Evans48590
Adam Humphries25491
Freddie Martino11250
Russell Shepard13190
Charles Sims35150
Alan Cross1170
Luke Stocker0100
Josh Huff0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott32/3627900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott231596.91
Dak Prescott4205.01
Darren McFadden3103.30
Lucky Whitehead2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant810820
Jason Witten1010510
Cole Beasley45480
Terrance Williams34300
Ezekiel Elliott33290
Brice Butler11210
Lance Dunbar22200
Darren McFadden11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.36