2015 · Week 10

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Matt Cassel

6·10

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.008
  • 43.9%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.141
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.85CPOE-0.02
  • 34.0%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.77
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. TB are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–TB
DALQ1 15:00314Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:3231Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:151128Field goal3–0
TBQ1 3:55846Field goal3–3
DALQ2 14:51634Field goal6–3
TBQ2 10:34712Missed field goal6–3
DALQ2 7:47734Missed field goal6–3
TBQ2 3:31736Turnover6–3
DALQ2 1:35421Punt6–3
TBQ2 0:44516End of half6–3
TBQ3 15:0037Punt6–3
DALQ3 13:25623Punt6–3
TBQ3 10:13834Punt6–3
DALQ3 6:02525Punt6–3
TBQ3 2:52949Punt6–3
DALQ4 13:57617Punt6–3
TBQ4 10:49979Turnover6–3
DALQ4 5:4239Punt6–3
TBQ4 4:001151Touchdown6–10
DALQ4 0:54211Turnover6–10
TBQ4 0:1400End of half6–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel19/2918601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden17321.90
Christine Michael382.70
Matt Cassel122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant512450
Jason Witten55420
Terrance Williams23330
Darren McFadden34260
Gavin Escobar11220
Devin Street11100
Cole Beasley1180
Lucky Whitehead1100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston22/3926402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin18633.50
Charles Sims5183.60
Jameis Winston331.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans8131260
Doug Martin44400
Brandon Myers34350
Adam Humphries23250
Charles Sims25130
Donteea Dye13110
Cameron Brate1260
Luke Stocker0100
Russell Shepard0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.76