2015 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.008
- 43.9%Success rate44.4%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.85CPOE-0.02
- 34.0%Third-down rate41.4%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.77
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. TB are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/29 | 186 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 17 | 32 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 12 | 45 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 22/39 | 264 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 13 | 126 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76