2024 · Week 16

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

24·26

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

TB -4.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-3.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.089
  • 49.4%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.067
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.128
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +3.56CPOE-4.87
  • 50.8%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.68
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. DAL are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DAL
DALQ1 15:00930Field goal0–3
TBQ1 9:06832Turnover on downs0–3
DALQ1 4:57552Touchdown0–10
TBQ1 2:4939Punt0–10
DALQ1 1:1237Punt0–10
TBQ2 14:45657Touchdown7–10
DALQ2 11:30544Field goal7–13
TBQ2 9:15825Punt7–13
DALQ2 4:14980Touchdown7–20
TBQ2 1:45771Touchdown14–20
DALQ2 0:48530Field goal14–23
TBQ3 15:001025Punt14–23
DALQ3 9:07435Field goal14–26
TBQ3 6:331043Field goal17–26
DALQ3 0:31723Punt17–26
TBQ4 11:38511Punt17–26
DALQ4 9:1044Punt17–26
TBQ4 7:32545Turnover17–26
DALQ4 6:2238Punt17–26
TBQ4 4:43987Touchdown24–26
DALQ4 2:3638Punt24–26
TBQ4 1:4015Turnover24–26
DALQ4 1:3100End of half24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield31/4330321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving16684.31
Baker Mayfield34214.00
Sterling Shepard11414.00
Rachaad White3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans58690
Jalen McMillan57571
Rachaad White78500
Trey Palmer24310
Payne Durham57290
Bucky Irving33240
Sterling Shepard13200
Ryan Miller22171
Rakim Jarrett1160

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush26/3529210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle13231.80
KaVontae Turpin3113.70
Ezekiel Elliott111.01
Cooper Rush3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb781050
Brandin Cooks33480
Ryan Flournoy33410
Jake Ferguson69400
Rico Dowdle33280
Jalen Tolbert23201
KaVontae Turpin1170
Luke Schoonmaker1130
Hunter Luepke0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.23