2024 · Week 16
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.089
- 49.4%Success rate41.4%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.067
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.128
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.56CPOE-4.87
- 50.8%Third-down rate37.1%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.71Points / drive1.68
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 31/43 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 26/35 | 292 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 8 | 105 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.23