2022 · Week 1
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.031
- 44.0%Success rate45.2%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.031
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.30CPOE-1.95
- 38.1%Third-down rate46.2%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.63Points / drive2.26
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/27 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 21 | 127 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14/29 | 134 | 0 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 7/13 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| Dennis Houston | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Simi Fehoko | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50