2022 · Week 1

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

19·3

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.031
  • 44.0%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.031
  • 6.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.30CPOE-1.95
  • 38.1%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.26
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. DAL are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DAL
DALQ1 15:001354Field goal0–3
TBQ1 9:02654Field goal3–3
DALQ1 5:0537Punt3–3
TBQ1 3:53649Field goal6–3
DALQ1 1:0636Punt6–3
TBQ2 14:451143Missed field goal6–3
DALQ2 7:31410Turnover6–3
TBQ2 6:06412Field goal9–3
DALQ2 3:25518Punt9–3
TBQ2 1:46761Field goal12–3
DALQ2 0:1400End of half12–3
TBQ3 15:00412Punt12–3
DALQ3 12:11615Punt12–3
TBQ3 8:07979Touchdown19–3
DALQ3 3:231149Turnover on downs19–3
TBQ4 13:3137Turnover19–3
DALQ4 12:0132Punt19–3
TBQ4 11:12732Punt19–3
DALQ4 7:001239Turnover on downs19–3
TBQ4 3:143-1Punt19–3
DALQ4 2:47845Turnover on downs19–3
TBQ4 0:4900End of half19–3

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/2721211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette211276.00
Julio Jones2178.50
Rachaad White6142.30
Jaelon Darden122.00
Tom Brady2-1-0.50
Breshad Perriman1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans57711
Julio Jones35690
Chris Godwin Jr.33350
Russell Gage22130
Leonard Fournette22100
Cameron Brate1370
Rachaad White2270
Breshad Perriman0300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott14/2913401
Cooper Rush7/136400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott10525.20
Dak Prescott2115.50
Tony Pollard681.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Brown59680
Dalton Schultz79620
CeeDee Lamb211290
Dennis Houston25160
Tony Pollard22140
Simi Fehoko23120
Ezekiel Elliott12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.50