2026 · Week 5

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jalon Daniels

24·16

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -9.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.142
  • 40.9%Success rate48.8%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.011EPA / rush+0.017
  • 7.4%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -2.76CPOE+1.17
  • 40.9%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.97
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. DAL are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DAL
DALQ1 15:001163Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 10:511868Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 14:53512Punt7–7
TBQ2 12:2635Punt7–7
DALQ2 11:00512Punt7–7
TBQ2 9:13837Punt7–7
DALQ2 3:4040Punt7–7
TBQ2 3:03411Punt7–7
DALQ2 1:52559Field goal7–10
TBQ2 0:21334End of half7–10
TBQ3 15:00286Touchdown14–10
DALQ3 14:00641Turnover14–10
TBQ3 10:43685Touchdown21–10
DALQ3 7:3100Field goal21–10
TBQ3 7:24719Field goal24–10
DALQ3 2:58518Turnover on downs24–10
TBQ3 1:461449Turnover on downs24–10
DALQ4 8:321099Touchdown24–16
TBQ4 5:2637Punt24–16
DALQ4 3:42862Turnover24–16
TBQ4 1:16220End of half24–16

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalon Daniels19/2518910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving211657.91
Jalon Daniels7233.30
Kenny Gainwell4184.50
Sean Tucker5183.60
Emeka Egbuka11414.01
Chris Godwin Jr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tez Johnson11640
Emeka Egbuka69380
Chris Godwin Jr.33370
Cade Otton34250
Kenny Gainwell34100
Bucky Irving23101
Payne Durham1150

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/4231612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams12453.81
Hunter Luepke155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens9131301
Ryan Flournoy34900
KaVontae Turpin24220
Jonathan Mingo24200
Jake Ferguson36190
Javonte Williams23170
CeeDee Lamb2590
Luke Schoonmaker1190
Brevyn Spann-Ford0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.52
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.36