Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapCowboys
- -0.081EPA / play+0.271
- 51.8%Success rate48.3%
- -0.168EPA / dropback+0.425
- +0.118EPA / rush-0.100
- 5.4%Explosive rate0.0%
- +14.02CPOE+7.73
- 50.0%Third-down rate72.7%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.44Points / drive2.98
- 7.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.02