2018 · Week 16

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

20·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

48

Model margin

+3.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.009
  • 44.9%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.229EPA / rush-0.060
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.11CPOE+1.03
  • 46.7%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.93
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. DAL are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DAL
TBQ1 15:00755Field goal3–0
DALQ1 12:081073Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 7:071046Opp touchdown3–14
TBQ1 1:411454Field goal6–14
DALQ2 9:1337Punt6–14
TBQ2 7:0535Punt6–14
DALQ2 5:41518Punt6–14
TBQ2 3:083-8Punt6–14
DALQ2 2:0935Field goal6–17
TBQ2 1:43854Touchdown13–17
DALQ2 0:20313End of half13–17
DALQ3 15:0035Punt13–17
TBQ3 13:20630Missed field goal13–17
DALQ3 10:401156Field goal13–20
TBQ3 3:4138Turnover13–20
DALQ3 2:3224Touchdown13–27
TBQ3 2:231873Turnover on downs13–27
DALQ4 7:48840Punt13–27
TBQ4 4:28966Touchdown20–27
DALQ4 2:05213End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston34/4833610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber17432.50
Jameis Winston4143.50
DeSean Jackson144.00
Jacquizz Rodgers221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans610901
Adam Humphries1012790
Jacquizz Rodgers77550
Chris Godwin Jr.36390
Bobo Wilson23280
DeSean Jackson14240
Peyton Barber33130
Cameron Brate2380

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott20/2516110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott18854.70
Dak Prescott420.51
Rod Smith2-7-3.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup34531
Cole Beasley55500
Ezekiel Elliott56240
Amari Cooper45200
Blake Jarwin2380
Noah Brown1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.02