2018 · Week 16
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
48
Model margin
+3.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.009
- 44.9%Success rate43.9%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.229EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.11CPOE+1.03
- 46.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.93Points / drive1.93
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 34/48 | 336 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 10 | 90 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 10 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 7 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 20/25 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02