Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
33.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.090
- 39.6%Success rate39.0%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.9%
- 36.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
- 1.28Points / drive0.98
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 33/63 | 326 | 1 | 3 |
| Randall Cunningham | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 8 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 4 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 4 | 10 | 32 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 5 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/30 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.23