2001 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

10·21

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

33.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

4.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.090
  • 39.6%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback-0.080
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
  • 1.28Points / drive0.98
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:44524Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:2536Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:4331Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:5632Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:20737Field goal3–0
CINQ1 4:221040Missed field goal3–0
BALQ2 14:19618Punt3–0
CINQ2 12:38415Punt3–0
BALQ2 10:332063Turnover3–0
CINQ2 1:5733Punt3–0
BALQ2 0:221-5End of half3–0
BALQ3 15:0000Touchdown3–0
CINQ3 14:47628Touchdown3–7
BALQ3 11:3815Turnover3–7
CINQ3 11:08633Touchdown3–14
BALQ3 8:10750Punt3–14
CINQ3 6:001073Missed field goal3–14
BALQ3 0:3730Punt3–14
BALQ3 0:08417Touchdown10–14
CINQ4 13:403-3Punt10–14
BALQ4 11:28511Turnover10–14
CINQ4 9:1530Missed field goal10–14
BALQ4 8:19537Opp touchdown10–21
CINQ4 6:0400Opp touchdown10–21
BALQ4 6:041039Turnover on downs10–21
CINQ4 2:2437Punt10–21
BALQ4 1:571485Turnover10–21

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac33/6332613
Randall Cunningham1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen17613.60
Obafemi Ayanbadejo231.50
Elvis Grbac100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe812840
Qadry Ismail411620
Moe Williams33540
Travis Taylor47440
Pat Johnson410321
Brandon Stokley27190
Todd Heap23160
Obafemi Ayanbadejo23110
Terry Allen5670

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna19/3015410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon18573.20
Peter Warrick177.00
Jon Kitna122.01
Brandon Bennett310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott56820
Marco Battaglia24200
Peter Warrick38170
Ron Dugans22120
Tony McGee1280
Brandon Bennett1260
Corey Dillon4411
Chad Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.23