Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.195EPA / play-0.062
- 35.9%Success rate39.3%
- -0.169EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- 30.3%Third-down rate40.9%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 0.78Points / drive1.45
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.016EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:20 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 2:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 1:06 | 14 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 8:34 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q2 1:38 | 7 | 24 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q2 0:12 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 10–16 |
| ATL | Q3 11:19 | 1 | 94 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 11:06 | 9 | 59 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ATL | Q3 5:48 | 2 | 26 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 5:25 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| ATL | Q3 2:30 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| CAR | Q4 12:36 | 13 | 77 | Field goal | 16–24 |
| ATL | Q4 5:37 | 9 | 51 | Punt | 16–24 |
| CAR | Q4 0:07 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 16–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 27/41 | 276 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 10 | 14 | 132 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 11/14 | 244 | 2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 2/2 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 1 | 94 | 1 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72