2001 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

10·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

6.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.063
  • 42.2%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.012EPA / dropback-0.033
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.099
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 42.5%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.28
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.146

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:2838Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:2831Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:37544Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 6:05727Punt3–0
MINQ1 3:08617Punt3–0
CHIQ2 14:5033Punt3–0
MINQ2 13:09513Punt3–0
CHIQ2 11:33416Punt3–0
MINQ2 9:33530Punt3–0
CHIQ2 6:21641Punt3–0
MINQ2 2:5839Punt3–0
CHIQ2 1:5430Punt3–0
MINQ2 1:27854Turnover3–0
MINQ3 15:00861Touchdown10–0
CHIQ3 10:34845Field goal10–3
MINQ3 6:15622Turnover10–3
CHIQ3 3:31951Turnover10–3
MINQ4 14:0533Punt10–3
CHIQ4 12:58849Touchdown10–10
MINQ4 9:29720Turnover on downs10–10
CHIQ4 6:31545Touchdown10–17
MINQ4 3:39938Turnover on downs10–17
CHIQ4 1:042-2End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper24/3623310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett16563.50
Daunte Culpepper8425.30
Jimmy Kleinsasser166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss510810
Byron Chamberlain56500
Jimmy Kleinsasser22280
Jake Reed45270
Michael Bennett55270
Cris Carter15130
Chris Walsh1140
Andrew Jordan1131

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller18/2920421
Shane Matthews5/93300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen15453.00
Marty Booker144.00
Shane Matthews100.00
Jim Miller2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson715991
Marty Booker910951
James Allen24140
David Terrell11100
Anthony Thomas1180
Dez White1270
Glyn Milburn2240
Fred Baxter0100
John Davis0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

6.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.10
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.34