Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
6.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.063
- 42.2%Success rate39.4%
- -0.012EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 42.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.40Points / drive1.28
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 24/36 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 18/29 | 204 | 2 | 1 |
| Shane Matthews | 5/9 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 7 | 15 | 99 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 9 | 10 | 95 | 1 |
| James Allen | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
6.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.34