Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:19 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:50 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 5:19 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:17 | 15 | 84 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q2 9:59 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 5:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q2 3:48 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:16 | 1 | 14 | End of half | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| LV | Q3 13:14 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| MIA | Q3 11:10 | 8 | 49 | Punt | 9–7 |
| LV | Q3 6:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 9–7 |
| MIA | Q3 5:43 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| LV | Q3 0:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 9–10 |
| MIA | Q4 13:37 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 15–10 |
| LV | Q4 12:41 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 15–10 |
| MIA | Q4 12:41 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 15–10 |
| LV | Q4 10:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 15–10 |
| MIA | Q4 8:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 15–10 |
| LV | Q4 6:52 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 15–10 |
| MIA | Q4 3:11 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 15–10 |
| LV | Q4 2:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 15–10 |
| MIA | Q4 1:41 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 15–18 |
| LV | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 15–18 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/34 | 217 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 2 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 5 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.