Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/34 | 217 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 2 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 5 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.