2001 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

27·3

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Husky Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

37

Model margin

+1.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.018
  • 39.2%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 31.5%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.20
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.115EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SEA
PHIQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:1134Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:17810Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 7:01615Punt3–0
PHIQ1 3:32639Turnover3–0
SEAQ1 0:36312Punt9–0
PHIQ2 14:15164Touchdown10–0
SEAQ2 14:061466Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 6:09881Touchdown17–3
SEAQ2 2:13731Turnover17–3
PHIQ2 0:513-1Punt17–3
SEAQ2 0:241-4End of half17–3
SEAQ3 15:003-6Punt17–3
PHIQ3 13:0134Punt17–3
SEAQ3 11:323-2Punt17–3
PHIQ3 10:203-7Missed field goal17–3
SEAQ3 9:1938Punt17–3
PHIQ3 7:5137Punt17–3
SEAQ3 6:19618Punt17–3
PHIQ3 4:093-12Punt17–3
SEAQ3 3:14511Punt17–3
PHIQ3 0:531572Field goal20–3
SEAQ4 9:313-6Punt20–3
PHIQ4 8:32862Touchdown27–3
SEAQ4 4:2230Punt27–3
PHIQ4 2:3463End of half27–3

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb24/3728320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter18522.90
Donovan McNabb5163.21
Duce Staley3124.00
James Thrash294.50
Cecil Martin188.00
Brian Mitchell252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash10131652
Correll Buckhalter44500
Brian Mitchell23290
Chad Lewis35130
Na Brown12120
Cecil Martin2260
Todd Pinkston1560
Duce Staley1220
Jeff Thomason0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck9/246200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters17814.80
Matt Hasselbeck4317.80
Koren Robinson284.00
Shaun Alexander362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Engram23280
Christian Fauria23130
Darrell Jackson2690
Koren Robinson1430
Ricky Watters1720

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.72