Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.018
- 39.2%Success rate38.9%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- 31.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.34Points / drive1.20
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/37 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 10 | 13 | 165 | 2 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 9/24 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72