Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
50
Model margin
-0.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play-0.055
- 48.8%Success rate41.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +6.78CPOE-4.93
- 39.6%Third-down rate36.0%
- 72.6%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 2.52Points / drive1.61
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/31 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 15 | 22 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 10 | 13 | 177 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| David Moore | 3 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/45 | 215 | 2 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 10 | 75 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 3 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.72