2020 · Week 12

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

23·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

50

Model margin

-0.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapEagles
  • +0.105EPA / play-0.055
  • 48.8%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +6.78CPOE-4.93
  • 39.6%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 72.6%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.61
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA
2008 · W9PHI @ SEA26–7PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
SEAQ1 14:311552Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 6:5731Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:1947Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 3:393-6Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:46312Punt0–0
PHIQ1 0:1531Punt0–0
SEAQ2 13:37668Touchdown7–0
PHIQ2 10:5638Punt7–0
SEAQ2 9:25956Touchdown14–0
PHIQ2 5:271670Touchdown14–6
SEAQ2 0:1200End of half14–6
SEAQ3 15:0033Punt14–6
PHIQ3 13:221148Field goal14–9
SEAQ3 7:33852Field goal17–9
PHIQ3 2:06723Turnover on downs17–9
SEAQ4 13:30643Field goal20–9
PHIQ4 11:08924Turnover20–9
SEAQ4 8:3587Punt20–9
PHIQ4 3:54823Turnover on downs20–9
SEAQ4 2:1433Field goal23–9
PHIQ4 1:13358Touchdown23–17
SEAQ4 0:1200End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3123010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson8415.11
Carlos Hyde15221.50
Russell Wilson6122.00
David Moore111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf10131770
Tyler Lockett34230
Chris Carson22180
Jacob Hollister25110
Carlos Hyde2370
David Moore33-61

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/4521521
Jalen Hurts1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carson Wentz5428.40
Miles Sanders6152.50
Boston Scott273.50
Corey Clement166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert710751
Richard Rodgers36531
Boston Scott56400
Travis Fulgham22160
Alshon Jeffery24150
Jalen Reagor37110
Miles Sanders2370
Greg Ward1330
John Hightower1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.72