Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.023
- 43.3%Success rate41.3%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.192
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.38CPOE+4.52
- 42.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.12Points / drive1.68
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 29/45 | 348 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 7 | 12 | 141 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/31 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04