2017 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

10·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.023
  • 43.3%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.192
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.38CPOE+4.52
  • 42.0%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.68
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA
2008 · W9PHI @ SEA26–7PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001153Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 9:47622Punt0–3
SEAQ1 6:243-3Punt0–3
PHIQ1 4:233-4Punt0–3
SEAQ1 2:58761Touchdown0–10
PHIQ1 0:101675Field goal3–10
SEAQ2 7:51522Punt3–10
PHIQ2 4:40935Punt3–10
SEAQ2 0:0700End of half3–10
PHIQ3 15:001174Turnover3–10
SEAQ3 9:391370Touchdown3–17
PHIQ3 5:42650Turnover on downs3–17
SEAQ3 3:51638Punt3–17
PHIQ3 0:56781Touchdown10–17
SEAQ4 12:081073Touchdown10–24
PHIQ4 7:29731Turnover on downs10–24
SEAQ4 5:433-6Punt10–24
PHIQ4 3:30527Turnover10–24
SEAQ4 1:5933Punt10–24
PHIQ4 0:57534End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz29/4534811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi9353.90
Carson Wentz6305.00
LeGarrette Blount8263.30
Corey Clement372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor7121411
Alshon Jeffery46610
Trey Burton47420
Corey Clement33300
Torrey Smith57290
Zach Ertz24240
Jay Ajayi34110
Mack Hollins11100
Kenjon Barner0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3122730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis16644.00
Russell Wilson6315.20
Thomas Rawls144.00
Eddie Lacy133.00
J.D. McKissic1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin57840
Nick Vannett33400
Mike Davis44370
Jimmy Graham34261
Tyler Lockett22171
J.D. McKissic13151
Paul Richardson2480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.04