Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.005
- 44.0%Success rate43.7%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.063
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.113
- 11.7%Explosive rate9.9%
- +4.40CPOE-0.76
- 43.4%Third-down rate44.2%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.06Points / drive1.88
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/37 | 263 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 86 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Christine Michael | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 7 | 97 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 10/20 | 96 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.92