2014 · Week 14

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

24·14

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SEA -1.5

Total

48

Model margin

-0.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapEagles
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.005
  • 44.0%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.063
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.113
  • 11.7%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +4.40CPOE-0.76
  • 43.4%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.88
  • 1.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA
2008 · W9PHI @ SEA26–7PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PHI
SEAQ1 15:001048Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:2536Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:0049Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 6:25614Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 3:371187Touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 14:17525Punt7–7
SEAQ2 12:1035Punt7–7
PHIQ2 10:3431Punt7–7
SEAQ2 9:271147Punt7–7
PHIQ2 3:09621Punt7–7
SEAQ2 1:34946Field goal10–7
PHIQ2 0:0200End of half10–7
PHIQ3 15:001-1Turnover10–7
SEAQ3 14:50219Touchdown17–7
PHIQ3 14:03542Touchdown17–14
SEAQ3 12:09647Touchdown24–14
PHIQ3 9:01419Punt24–14
SEAQ3 7:12515Punt24–14
PHIQ3 4:2334Punt24–14
SEAQ3 3:21638Punt24–14
PHIQ4 15:003-4Punt24–14
SEAQ4 13:33832Turnover24–14
PHIQ4 9:0710Turnover24–14
SEAQ4 9:0038Punt24–14
PHIQ4 7:38612Punt24–14
SEAQ4 4:07741End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3726320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch23863.70
Russell Wilson10484.81
Christine Michael6325.30
Jermaine Kearse2157.50
Robert Turbin471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin57971
Jermaine Kearse37370
Marshawn Lynch55271
Paul Richardson23270
Kevin Norwood22220
Ricardo Lockette11190
Tony Moeaki13150
Robert Turbin12140
Luke Willson1210

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez10/209621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy17502.90
Mark Sanchez177.00
Darren Sproles400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz23391
Jordan Matthews25230
Jeremy Maclin36211
Riley Cooper35130
Brent Celek0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.92