2016 · Week 11

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

15·26

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.022
  • 43.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.81CPOE+4.81
  • 38.3%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.88
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA
2008 · W9PHI @ SEA26–7PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:47619Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:50280Touchdown0–6
PHIQ1 11:02521Punt0–6
SEAQ1 8:313-1Punt0–6
PHIQ1 6:481468Touchdown7–6
SEAQ2 14:1313102Touchdown7–13
PHIQ2 8:20618Punt7–13
SEAQ2 5:32574Field goal7–16
PHIQ2 3:4738Punt7–16
SEAQ2 2:47419Punt7–16
PHIQ2 1:34412Turnover7–16
SEAQ2 0:16320End of half7–16
PHIQ3 15:003-1Punt7–16
SEAQ3 14:01618Punt7–16
PHIQ3 10:3524Turnover7–16
SEAQ3 9:47659Touchdown7–23
PHIQ3 7:3138Punt7–23
SEAQ3 6:0338Punt7–23
PHIQ3 3:5958Punt7–23
SEAQ3 1:16724Field goal7–26
PHIQ4 13:34934Turnover on downs7–26
SEAQ4 10:38633Missed field goal7–26
PHIQ4 7:151161Touchdown15–26
SEAQ4 3:4231Punt15–26
PHIQ4 3:17848Turnover on downs15–26
SEAQ4 1:4700End of half15–26

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz23/4521822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood13483.70
Ryan Mathews7314.40
Kenjon Barner3175.70
Darren Sproles2157.50
Carson Wentz122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews510590
Dorial Green-Beckham58541
Zach Ertz611351
Wendell Smallwood45310
Brent Celek11190
Trey Burton12140
Darren Sproles1160
Kenjon Barner0100
Nelson Agholor0300
Bryce Treggs0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/3127210
Doug Baldwin1/11510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Prosise47619.01
Thomas Rawls14574.10
Russell Wilson8192.40
Troymaine Pope231.50
Trevone Boykin1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin451040
Jimmy Graham35461
Tyler Lockett23390
Thomas Rawls34310
Jermaine Kearse26290
Russell Wilson11151
Luke Willson11120
Paul Richardson1360
C.J. Prosise2350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.30