Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.022
- 43.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.81CPOE+4.81
- 38.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 1.86Points / drive1.88
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 23/45 | 218 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 5 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 5 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 11 | 35 | 1 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/31 | 272 | 1 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1/1 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Prosise | 4 | 76 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Thomas Rawls | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Trevone Boykin | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 5 | 104 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.30