2019 · Week 12

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

17·9

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapEagles
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.5%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +7.05CPOE-1.01
  • 39.1%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.01
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA
2008 · W9PHI @ SEA26–7PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:233-6Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:52828Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 7:29475Touchdown7–3
PHIQ1 5:54521Turnover7–3
SEAQ1 3:0334Punt7–3
PHIQ1 1:58941Turnover7–3
SEAQ2 13:271077Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 7:133-2Punt10–3
SEAQ2 4:573-3Punt10–3
PHIQ2 2:5635Punt10–3
SEAQ2 1:50519Punt10–3
PHIQ2 0:5538End of half10–3
SEAQ3 15:00727Punt10–3
PHIQ3 11:301147Turnover10–3
SEAQ3 6:0145Turnover10–3
PHIQ3 4:37621Punt10–3
SEAQ3 1:06993Touchdown17–3
PHIQ4 11:56442Turnover17–3
SEAQ4 10:2823Turnover17–3
PHIQ4 9:3848Turnover on downs17–3
SEAQ4 7:50637Punt17–3
PHIQ4 5:07642Turnover17–3
SEAQ4 4:10418Punt17–3
PHIQ4 2:23880Touchdown17–9
SEAQ4 0:2000End of half17–9

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson13/2520011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny141299.21
Chris Carson8263.30
Russell Wilson3155.00
David Moore144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett12380
DK Metcalf36350
Malik Turner12331
David Moore12310
Chris Carson44310
Jacob Hollister24220
Josh Gordon12100
Rashaad Penny0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz33/4525612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders12635.30
Carson Wentz5275.40
Jay Ajayi6162.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz1214911
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside25430
Greg Ward67400
Dallas Goedert78320
Jordan Matthews36270
Miles Sanders35230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+3.08