Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.004
- 45.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.119EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +7.05CPOE-1.01
- 39.1%Third-down rate45.1%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.86Points / drive2.01
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13/25 | 200 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 14 | 129 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 33/45 | 256 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 12 | 14 | 91 | 1 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 6 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+3.08